Many of the most sought-after U.S. coin rarities are sold in major auctions. When a truly rare coin is to be sold, having the largest potential audience/bidder pool is crucial to maximizing the prices realized for those rarities. The competition among collectors and dealers is sometimes very heated because they’re all hoping to purchase the best coins for the least amount of money.
Collectors realize their options are limited by availability and time as well as the potential cost of the coin pursued. Dealers might have another angle, in that there might be some potential for an upgrade besides the potential resale value. Yet dealers are predominantly profit-driven.
Collectors realize they might have only this opportunity to own this particular coin. Dealers, past the point of potential profit, almost always have another coin (or deal) in the works. It is just pragmatism. “Let’s move on,” they might think to themselves. In other words, dealers can “live without it.”
During floor bidding in most major auctions, bidders have to be aware of not just other bidders in the room, but also those bidding by phone and via the internet. Frankly, you might not even be in the ballpark to start.
Here’s the deal… Depending on the rarity of the coin, you, as a buyer, may have no choice but to leave your arm in the air until you are the last and winning bidder. When will another of these very coins come on the market?
Despite consistently higher bullion price levels, many areas of the rare coin market are active yet show little price movement. Interestingly, the “acceptance” factor in the new bullion price levels has encountered few, if any, roadblocks. Many believe higher bullion prices are not only possible but likely.
Bullion and rare coins are different. Dealer reports from all recent major shows reflect strong rare coin sales, if those coins are even available to begin with. Rare coins are selling very quickly, even when their prices “seem” high.
One dealer said, “Yeah, Vic, I bought some cool coins, but I had to ‘pay up’ for all of them. There weren’t any bargains.” While these comments might paint this dealer as cheap, nothing could be farther from the truth. The reality is that he is a very savvy numismatist and knows what to pay up for. His additional comments further reinforce his expertise, because he admitted he took few of these new purchases home.
While he didn’t leave his hand in the air, so to speak, he realized nice coins are not cheap.
Rare coins are all about availability. Bullion coins are almost always about their price (or premium) in relation to their melt value.
Rare coins do not generally perform in predictable market price cycles. The prices realized for rare coins is a product of the nexus of first, the availability of rare coin, second the number of “real” buyers, and third, the venue where it will be sold. Ultimately, the exposure a truly rare coin receives will benefit the price realized. Savvy collectors and dealers realize that the larger the buyer audience, the higher the price realized.
I’ve often been approached by a coin novice who has the desire to buy a particularly scarce or even rare item. When I was a dealer, I was always glad to help. After all, why would a dealer discourage a potential customer? Often, a particular coin just isn’t available. The cost of the coin isn’t necessarily the issue. For example, many scarce and especially many rare coins are only available on a random basis – sometimes years or even decades elapse between trades!
Recently, the all-time finest set of PCGS-graded Stella $4 proof coins assembled by Silvano DiGenova from Tangible Assets in California was displayed at the 2024 American Numismatic Association World’s Fair of Money. The combined mintage for the four different proof Stellas is a whopping 490 coins. Only the 1879 Flowing Hair Stella, with a mintage of 425, is generally available on the market in several grades. However, the other three issues with mintages of 20, 10, and 35, respectively, are all rare coins and difficult to locate individually. Finding an example of all three of these low-mintage coins is an even taller order to fill.
When speaking about this finest PCGS Stella Registry Set, DiGenova said their display at “the 2024 ANA Convention may be the only opportunity for collectors, dealers, and the general public to see these superb-quality, rare coins together.” The cost is secondary to the primary question of “when?” or “where?” the next example might come up for sale.
If you truly want a particular coin, depending on the rarity of the item, you are going to have to pay up for it. You are going to have to leave your arm in the air. We would all like to buy a coin for a bargain price, but everyone else has the same idea.
Personally, I’ve regretted passing on the opportunity to buy a coin numerous times. Practicality and opportunity don’t necessarily match. Sometimes, a coin purchase is completely impractical or unaffordable. That being said, from experience, I have learned to plan for the opportunity. You will have to balance your possible regrets with the premium you have to pay for a great rare coin. Always remember that opportunity is fleeting.
Frequently traded coins in a particular grade, with at least four to six auction appearances per year, have a verifiable market track record. While many of these coins might be quite scarce, demand and price will depend on the coin itself, but you can reasonably predict your cost depending on the grade and quality of the coin. There is a difference between these scarce coins and truly rare coins, like the Stellas I mentioned above.
The date of sale and the price realized for PCGS-graded coins sold at auction – auction prices realized, or “APRs” – are a great tool for not only gauging the availability of a coin but also how much it might cost. Between the PCGS population of the coin and the APRs you can estimate how often a coin might come on the market as well as determine the potential price range.
Rare coins that might not be available for purchase but every few years are a different story. The potential buyer can’t predict the cost of an item without a coin to buy. In addition, the market at the point of sale might be completely different.
The availability of the coin itself is the issue! When a truly rare coin makes an appearance, be prepared to pay up!